When the Waters Rise

About the event

Why we are bringing a scientist and two Berkeley scholars of the Philippines together to talk about floods, why here, and who we are. Further down: the floods we'll talk about and answers to common questions.

Why this conversation

Floods in the Philippines are usually told as an engineering story. Rain falls, rivers rise, and the fix is a higher wall or a deeper drain. That story is true, but it leaves out most of what decides who ends up under water.

Which towns get mapped, which get protected and which get concrete is settled by budgets, politics and choices that go back more than a century. In 2025 the country saw this plainly when billions of pesos meant for flood control went to projects that were poorly built or never built at all, and tens of thousands marched in protest. A flood is a natural hazard. Who it hurts is a human decision.

So this event puts three fields on one stage.

  • The science. Dr. Lagmay has spent his career showing where water will go, and making those maps free so that a mayor, a planner or a family can use them before the storm.
  • The state and its money. Dr. Claudio traces how the Philippine state was built to run on too little, and what that has meant for what it can build and maintain.
  • The built world. Dr. Martinez shows how American rule used concrete and city planning to remake the islands, and how those plans still shape who lives where the water comes.

None of these fields can explain the floods alone, and none can fix them alone. We want engineers to hear from history and political economy, those fields to hear from the scientist, and everyone in the room to leave with a fuller picture than any one of them could give.

Why here

The Bay Area is home to one of the largest Filipino communities in the United States, and many people here have family in towns that flood almost every year. For them, a typhoon is not a headline but a phone call home. We want this to be a place where that worry meets the people who study it, and where people with no ties to the Philippines can see why it matters to their neighbours.

Who is organizing it

We are three Filipino graduate students at UC Berkeley, each coming to floods from a different field. Gregor Posadas studies water governance in Civil and Environmental Engineering, and Noam Anglo is in Development EngineeringA Berkeley field that designs, tests and studies technology with and for communities in low-resource settings.. Together they work on BahaWatch, a low-cost flood-sensing project. Veronica Sison is a historian in Southeast Asian Studies whose research traces technocratic thoughtThe idea that trained experts, like engineers and economists, should make a country's big decisions. in the Philippines. At Stanford, Rapha Felipe leads the Stanford side of the visit, where Dr. Lagmay also plans to speak, and has helped find support for his trip. Before joining Stanford's Baker Lab, where she now works on disaster risk, she mapped flood risk across the Philippines at the Asian Infrastructure Investment BankA development bank, founded in 2016, that lends money for roads, power, water and flood protection across Asia..

What we hope comes of it

  • Your questions, sent on Ask the speakers, shape what the speakers talk about.
  • The map on Share your story shows the room, before anyone arrives, how many of us are tied to places that flood.
  • The talk is recorded, so it can reach people who could not come, here and in the Philippines.
  • Afterwards we plan to write a short briefA few plain-language pages with what we learned and what people can do. on what people in the Bay Area, Filipino or not, can do next.

Flood history

The floods Dr. Lagmay, Dr. Claudio and Dr. Martinez will talk about, and the people who lived through them. This section comes from BahaWatch, a low-cost flood-sensing project by Berkeley graduate students, where it first appeared.

Floods are part of life in the Philippines. Behind every number are families who wade to work, carry what they can, and wait on rooftops for rescue. This section remembers some of them.

Some photographs show homes destroyed by storms. None show people who died.

The floods

2009 Ondoy (Ketsana)

On 26 September, 341 mm of rain fell on Metro Manila in six hours (source: GMA News, NDCC update, 1 Oct 2009), more than the city’s previous record for a whole day. In the worst-hit cities floodwater reached from knee to neck, up to rooftops (source: Rappler, “Looking back: the records of Ondoy”); the national disaster council’s final count was 464 dead, 37 missing and about 4.9 million people affected (source: Rappler, “Looking back: the records of Ondoy”).

Two men push a wooden handcart through brown floodwater along a city street; more people wade behind them.
Metro Manila, 8 October 2009. Floodwater from Ondoy had still not drained nearly two weeks after the storm.Photo: AusAID (Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, Australia) · CC BY 2.0 · Wikimedia Commons
A wooden boat loaded with sacks of vegetables and passengers moves along a flooded street past a shop sign reading Bangko Pasig.
Pasig, 8 October 2009. A boat carries people and produce along a street that was still under water.Photo: AusAID (Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, Australia) · CC BY 2.0 · Wikimedia Commons

2011 Sendong (Washi)

The storm crossed Cagayan de Oro around midnight on 16–17 December, and the river rose from about 2 m to 10 m, sweeping through riverbank settlements. Many people drowned in their sleep. 1,268 died (source: Inquirer, “What went before: Tropical Storm Sendong”, 28 Dec 2014) in Cagayan de Oro, Iligan and nearby provinces; 181 bodies were never recovered (source: Heinrich Böll Stiftung, “10 years after Typhoon Sendong”, 21 Oct 2022).

A stone memorial wall in a park, engraved with rows of names under the words Memorial Wall.
Gaston Park, Cagayan de Oro, 2016. The memorial wall lists the names of those who died in the Sendong flood of 17 December 2011.Photo: Shywise · CC BY-SA 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons

2012 The habagat (monsoon) floods

Over four days in August the southwest monsoon, strengthened by two typhoons offshore, left about half of Manila under water (source: SBS News / AFP, “Half of Manila submerged”, 8 Aug 2012). By 17 August the national disaster council counted 109 dead and 4.2 million people affected (source: IFRC emergency appeal MDRPH010, citing NDRRMC as of 17 Aug 2012).

A man carries a basin of belongings on his shoulder through floodwater, followed by a woman and a boy; others float on rafts behind.
Manila, 8 August 2012. Residents carry what they can through the monsoon flood.Photo: AusAID (Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, Australia) · CC BY 2.0 · Wikimedia Commons
Men push a makeshift raft on an inner tube through a flooded street lined with shops.
Manila, 8 August 2012. A raft made from an inner tube moves people and goods.Photo: AusAID (Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, Australia) · CC BY 2.0 · Wikimedia Commons

2013 Yolanda (Haiyan)

On 8 November Yolanda drove a storm surge into Tacloban and the coasts of Eastern Visayas. Nearly six months later the national disaster council counted 6,300 dead and 1,061 missing (source: GMA News, NDRRMC Yolanda toll, 17 Apr 2014).

People pick through the wreckage of a destroyed house among broken palm trees on the outskirts of Tacloban.
Outskirts of Tacloban, Leyte, 13 November 2013, five days after Yolanda.Photo: Trócaire · CC BY 2.0 · Wikimedia Commons
Portrait of a teacher in a light blue shirt standing in a damaged street.
Tacloban, 24 November 2013. A teacher DFID calls Jolita rescued some of her pupils when a 3-metre storm surge flooded the school where they were sheltering, close to Tacloban’s port. “We had to run for our lives,” she told DFID.Photo: DFID – UK Department for International Development · CC BY 2.0 · Wikimedia Commons
Boys play basketball on a cleared court, with storm debris and damaged buildings behind them.
Tacloban, 3 May 2014. Six months on, a basketball court cleared of rubble.Photo: DFID – UK Department for International Development · CC BY 2.0 · Wikimedia Commons

2024 Carina (Gaemi) and the habagat (monsoon)

In July rain reached 74 mm an hour, against drains built for about 30 (source: Inquirer, “Carina floods leave PH capital in state of calamity”, 25 Jul 2024), and Metro Manila declared a state of calamity. The national count: 46 reported dead, more than 6 million affected (source: Inquirer, NDRRMC toll for Carina, the habagat (monsoon) and Butchoy, 4 Aug 2024).

People with umbrellas wade through knee-deep floodwater along a street in Quiapo, Manila.
Quiapo, Manila, 24 July 2024. Knee-deep floodwater from the monsoon rain that Carina drew in.Photo: Michael Peronce · CC BY-SA 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons

2024 Kristine (Trami)

In October residents of Bicol called it the worst flooding in 30 years (source: Daily Tribune, 23 Oct 2024), and many waited on rooftops for rescue (source: Philstar, Kristine landslide and floods, 26 Oct 2024). Counted together with Typhoon Leon, which followed, the toll reached 145 dead and 37 missing (source: GMA News, NDRRMC toll for Kristine and Leon, 30 Oct 2024) by 30 October.

Aerial view of rice fields under brown floodwater stretching to the horizon, crossed by a raised road.
Naga, Camarines Sur, 23 October 2024. Rice fields under water after Kristine.Photo: Naga City Government · public domain (Philippine government work) · Wikimedia Commons

2025 Tino (Kalmaegi)

On 4 November floodwater in Cebu trapped families on rooftops (source: Inquirer, “Tino floods leave cars in piles, trap families on rooftops”, 5 Nov 2025) in Liloan, Consolacion, Mandaue and Talisay, and piled cars in the streets. By 17 November the Office of Civil Defense counted 269 dead and 113 missing nationwide, 150 of the dead in Cebu (source: GMA News, “269 dead, 523 injured due to Typhoon Tino — OCD”, 17 Nov 2025).

The swollen brown Mananga River beside a bank of destroyed houses and debris, with people among the wreckage.
Talisay, Cebu, 4 November 2025. The Mananga River swells as Tino batters Cebu.Photo: LadyPinayForever · CC0 · Wikimedia Commons

Living with water

For many families, flooding is not an event but a season, or a tide. Much of Metro Manila and the land around northern Manila Bay is sinking, largely because groundwater is pumped out faster than it returns. Between 2003 and 2011 parts of Caloocan, Malabon, Navotas and Valenzuela sank by up to 4.2 cm a year (source: Eco, Rodolfo, Sulapas et al., “Disaster in slow motion”, JSM Environmental Science & Ecology, 2020), and around northern Manila Bay several centimetres to more than a decimetre a year (source: Rodolfo and Siringan, Disasters, 2006). Metro Manila’s drains handle about 30 mm of rain an hour (source: Inquirer, 25 Jul 2024).

In Macabebe, Pampanga, researchers in 2025 found neighbourhoods permanently under water (source: UP Resilience Institute, fieldwork in Macabebe and Obando, 2025). “Since July… the villages haven’t dried,” a local official told the Inquirer (source: Inquirer, “Pampanga folk break silence after years of flooding”, 1 Oct 2025) that October.

Floodwater stands around concrete-block houses with laundry hanging out; a child stands in the water.
San Francisco, Macabebe, Pampanga, 6 November 2020. Tidal flooding.Photo: Judgefloro · CC0 · Wikimedia Commons
A stone church whose doorway stands in floodwater.
Santa Monica, Hagonoy, Bulacan, 18 November 2020. Standing water at the church door.Photo: Judgefloro · CC0 · Wikimedia Commons
A utility pole painted as a flood gauge: monitor and prepare at 2 feet, pre-emptive evacuation at 4 feet, forced evacuation above.
Masantol, Pampanga, 15 June 2025. A flood gauge painted on a pole tells residents when to prepare and when to leave.Photo: Ralff Nestor Nacor · CC BY-SA 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons

The politics of flood control

In 2025 flood control became the country’s biggest political story. What follows is what happened and who said what, as reported by news outlets; people charged are presumed innocent until a court decides.

  1. In his State of the Nation Address, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. condemned failed and “ghost” flood-control projects: “Mahiya naman kayo” (“Shame on you”). He ordered a list of every flood-control project of the past three years (source: Inquirer, 28 Jul 2025) and promised charges against those found connected (source: Philstar, 28 Jul 2025).

  2. He opened Sumbong sa Pangulo (“Report to the President”) (source: Inquirer, 11 Aug 2025), a public website mapping the projects, and said 15 contractors had won more than ₱100 billion of the ₱545 billion in 9,855 projects since July 2022 (source: GMA News special report, “The corruption of Philippine flood control projects”).

  3. Senate and House hearings followed. Public Works Secretary Manuel Bonoan resigned; Vince Dizon replaced him (source: Philstar, 31 Aug 2025). Contractors Sarah and Curlee Discaya named lawmakers and officials as allegedly involved; House Speaker Martin Romualdez and several others named denied it (source: GMA News, 8 Sep 2025).

  4. Vicente Sotto III replaced Francis Escudero as Senate President (source: Philstar, 9 Sep 2025), and Mr Romualdez resigned as House Speaker amid the allegations (source: Philstar, 17 Sep 2025), which he denies; Faustino Dy III succeeded him.

  5. An executive order created the Independent Commission for Infrastructure (source: Inquirer, 12 Sep 2025) to investigate public works of the past ten years, chaired by retired Justice Andres Reyes Jr. (source: SunStar, “Timeline: the flood control scandal”, 29 Oct 2025).

  6. Tens of thousands joined the Baha sa Luneta (“Flood at Luneta”) and Trillion Peso March protests: at least 50,000 at Luneta by the Manila disaster office’s count, and 60,000 to 70,000 at EDSA by the organisers’ (source: GMA News, 21 Sep 2025). Separate clashes near Mendiola ended in 216 arrests and more than 100 police and about 70 civilians injured (source: Philstar, 22 Sep 2025).

  7. After Typhoon Tino, the President ordered an investigation of Cebu’s flood-control projects (source: GMA Regional TV, 6 Nov 2025); Cebu’s governor said the province had received ₱26 billion in flood-control funds “yet we are flooded to the max”.

  8. The first cases reached the anti-graft court, which ordered the arrest of former Representative Zaldy Co and 15 others (source: Inquirer, Nov 2025) over a ₱289-million dike in Oriental Mindoro. Mr Co has remained abroad (source: Inquirer, “Gov’t fails to secure Co, now says he’s in France”, 2026). On 30 November police counted about 90,000 people at 119 rallies nationwide (source: Philstar, 1 Dec 2025).

  9. Former Senator Bong Revilla surrendered on a malversation warrant (source: Philstar, 19 Jan 2026). He has denied involvement; when he refused to enter a plea, the court entered not guilty for him (source: PhilSTAR Life, Revilla plea). Senator Jinggoy Estrada surrendered on a plunder warrant (source: SunStar, 1 Jun 2026) and denies the charges. The commission referred 65 people for prosecution and reported ₱24.7 billion in assets frozen, seized or surrendered (source: Philstar, 6 Feb 2026), then handed its evidence to prosecutors (source: Manila Bulletin, 23 Mar 2026).

  10. In his next address the President said more than ₱800 million had been returned (source: Inquirer, 27 Jul 2026); GMA News counted 45 people charged in 26 cases (source: GMA News, 28 Jul 2026).

  11. The Ombudsman charged former Speaker Romualdez with plunder (source: Philstar, 7 Sep 2026) over ₱7.44 billion; he denies wrongdoing. He was arrested, pleaded not guilty (source: Philstar, 17 Sep 2026) and has asked for bail (source: Inquirer, 28 Sep 2026). The anti-graft court said its first decisions may come this year (source: Daily Tribune, 10 Sep 2026).

Aerial view of a large crowd filling a road and plaza in Rizal Park, Manila.
Rizal Park, Manila, 21 September 2025, 10:45 a.m. The Baha sa Luneta (“Flood at Luneta”) protest from the air.Photo: Manila Public Information Office · public domain (Philippine government work) · Wikimedia Commons
A dense crowd fills a road beneath an elevated highway; more people watch from the overpass.
Near the EDSA Shrine, Quezon City, 21 September 2025. The Trillion Peso March against corruption in flood-control projects.Photo: Sean Ronquillo (Ubediplomacy) · CC BY-SA 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons

As of 1 October 2026 we found no report of a verdict in any of the flood-control cases.

Photo credits

Every photograph is from Wikimedia Commons under an open licence, credited under the photo with its licence and a link to its page. We resized them for the web and changed nothing else. Photos under CC BY-SA keep that licence. The Philippine government photos are public domain under Section 176 of the Intellectual Property Code.

Facts and figures link to their sources where they appear. Tolls are the latest official counts we could find and may differ from other reports. Write to Noam (on the homepage) to correct anything here.

FAQs

Underlined terms open a short note. Jump to: the event · flooding in the Philippines · this site.

The event

Who can come? Do I need to be Filipino?

Everyone is welcome: students, faculty, staff and anyone from the wider Bay Area, whether your family is from the Philippines or you have never been. It's free.

Do I need to RSVP?

Please do. Banatao Auditorium holds 149 people, and in-person seats go in the order people RSVP. Once they are gone, the form offers a waitlist, and we will email you if a seat opens; the livestream is open to everyone. The RSVP is how we send reminders, the livestream link and any changes. It takes under a minute. RSVP here.

When and where is it?

Monday, November 9, 2026, from 4 to 5 PM Pacific. If anything changes, everyone who RSVPs hears first. It's in Banatao Auditorium, in Sutardja Dai Hall on the north side of the UC Berkeley campus; see directions.

What happens after the talk?

Stay and meet the speakers. We will walk over together to room B100 in Blum Hall, right next door to Sutardja Dai Hall. Food and drinks are not allowed in the auditorium, so anything to eat will be there. The reception is for the same 149 people as the panel, so some of us will spill into the lobby outside B100. See directions and the room.

Can I watch online?

Yes. It will be livestreamed on YouTube, and you can watch it on the Watch live page or on YouTube. We're also recording it.

What if I can't make it to Berkeley?

Watch the livestream, or catch Dr. Lagmay at Stanford. Stanford is hosting a talk by him on Tuesday, November 10, with details to come. We will share the time, the room and how to sign up once they are set.

I have access needs or a food allergy. Who do I tell?

Email gregorposadas@berkeley.edu. Only the organizing team sees it. You can also reply to your RSVP email at any time.

Can I ask the speakers a question?

Yes. Send one on the Ask the speakers page, no name needed, and we'll bring a selection to the conversation, along with questions from the room as time allows.

What is the morning lecture?

Earlier the same day, from 11 AM to 12 PM in B100 Blum Hall, Dr. Lagmay gives a guest lecture in Development Engineering 203, Digital Transformation of Development, a graduate course at Berkeley. Since it is a class, it has room for 20 guests on top of the students, and those spots are now full, with the waitlist closed. The afternoon conversation is the public event.

Flooding in the Philippines

What is Project NOAH?

NOAH stands for Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards. It maps where floods, landslides and storm surges can strike, anywhere in the Philippines, and makes the maps free for anyone to use at noah.up.edu.ph. It was launched in 2012 under the Department of Science and Technology, with Dr. Lagmay as its head, and has been run by the University of the Philippines since 2017, as the flagship of the UP Resilience InstituteA University of the Philippines institute that studies disasters and climate risk and helps communities prepare., which Dr. Lagmay leads. The flood maps on our event page are NOAH's.

What is a "100-year flood"?

A flood so big that it has a 1 in 100 chance of happening in any given year. It does not mean once a century: two can come in back-to-back years. NOAH maps floods for rains of three sizes, with a 1 in 5, 1 in 25 and 1 in 100 chance each year. Our map uses the biggest, to show everywhere water could reach.

Why does the Philippines flood so often?

Several reasons pile up:

The Philippines ranks first in the world for disaster risk in the WorldRiskReport 2026 (source: WorldRiskReport 2026, Bündnis Entwicklung Hilft and IFHV).

What was the flood-control scandal?

In July 2025 President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. condemned failed and "ghost" flood-control projects (source: Philstar, 28 Jul 2025), built badly or not at all though they were paid for. Hearings, resignations, an independent commission, mass protests and the first court cases followed. Those charged are presumed innocent until a court decides. The Flood history section above has the timeline, with a source for every step.

Which floods will come up at the event?

The worst since 1991, from the Ormoc flash flood to Typhoon Tino in Cebu in 2025. The Flood history section above tells each one, with photos.

This page

What happens to my answers?

Your RSVP name and email are only for the RSVP list; they never appear on the site or at the event. The map on Share your story is filled in separately and anonymously, and shows only counts, by Bay Area county and Philippine province. If you share a flood story and say yes to sharing it, a teammate reads it first, and a few may be read aloud at the event, never with a name. Questions sent on Ask the speakers are never shown on the site.

Where do the maps come from?

The flood areas are UP NOAH's; the buildings come from Google, Microsoft and OpenStreetMap; the streets from OpenStreetMap. The full list, with links, is under Data and sources on the event page.